Reflections on the London Risk Summit 2026

19 May, 2026

Oxbow Partners attended the inaugural London Risk Summit on 12 May. Set against a backdrop of global conflicts, distressed markets, and an AI revolution, the response of the insurance sector was at the centre of debate. Executives know they must respond, but what might this look like in practice? Equally, can instability present opportunities? How, and by whom, might these be seized upon? This article contains our reflections.

1. Greater geopolitical instability increases exposure for clients, and opportunity for insurers  

In the first panel of the day, Barclays Head of Geopolitical Risk, Andrew McDougall, addressed the impacts of the ongoing Iran war and the need for businesses to mitigate their vulnerability to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Risk posed by ‘chokepoints’ are not unique to this conflict, however, and Andrew went on to predict disruption to advanced tech supply chains caused by growing tensions between the US and China. China holds a near monopoly of the rare earth mineral supply, whilst the US and Taiwan dominate production of the semiconductors that depend on them. All the while global industry is embracing an AI revolution sitting precariously downstream of it all. The advice for clients was clear: diversify your supply chains, predict what might be coming next, and of course, purchase more insurance.

Shifting focus to insurers, it is self-evident that instability increases gross exposure. More subtly, it diversifies that exposure as industries pivot to new strategies and initiatives in response. This is where opportunities begin to present themselves. For example, the response to energy supply disruption is the quest for energy independence. In the UK, this necessitates significant evolution of energy infrastructure, be it small modular reactors, industrial solar farms, and if political tides turn, greater North Sea drilling; all of these require capital, all of these will require insurance.

2. The London Market risks falling behind as greater exposures demand more capital  

The corollary of greater exposure, however, is a need for more capital. Speakers argued this to be a necessary evolution for the market, suggesting that third-party channels will need to widen for insurers to capitalise on growth opportunities. Insurance-linked securities will be the winning strategy, but this raises concern for the London Market, which, despite owning c.9% of the global commercial market, deploys just 2% of global alternative capital, mostly through the London Bridge 2 scheme (see our explainer).

Regulatory structures for ILS in the UK lag other domiciles like Bermuda, with Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Rt Hon Lucy Rigby MP, admitting that “other jurisdictions are looking to take some of our pie.” We were encouraged to hear Lucy stress the importance of regulation simplification, and hope her recent promotion to No. 2 in the Treasury speeds things along. We expect to see more carriers prioritise growing their alternative capital channels, tapping into private markets to deepen reserves.

3. Greater exposure will re-focus clients on risk management 

The same evolutionary pressure will also reshape client behaviour, where a ‘peacetime’ of benign risk and ready access to insurance has contributed to inefficient risk management. This was stressed by Perry Thomas, CEO of FloodRe, whose price-capped flood insurance (for otherwise uninsurable homes) emphasised this point; by disrupting normal pricing signals, the scheme has, in places, removed much of the incentive for homeowners to mitigate their own flood risk. As clients risk becoming uninsurable, their first instincts must be to minimise their exposures internally, and only then supplement with insurance. Naturally, this ought to lower premiums, and so we expect insurers to continue bolstering their adjunct risk management services to remain competitive.

Interestingly, Caroline Wagstaff, CEO of the London Market Group, stressed that this mindset shift amongst clients need not be a threat to insurers’ business models, and more prudent insureds strengthen the entire risk ecosystem. (In related news this week, AXA XL announced the creation of a new risk prevention unit.) To this point, we enjoyed hearing Caroline detail the successes of the LMG in supporting the creation of the UK’s incoming captive regime.

4. AI is a force multiplier, enhancing both threats and their countermeasures 

AI and its impacts were discussed frequently, both as sword and shield. For the former, Nathaniel Jones of Darktrace explained how GenAI has democratised cyber-warfare, granting any rogue teenager with access to a frontier model the ability to wreak havoc. The very same tools in the right hands, however, can be the antidote, with Claude’s infamously embargoed ‘Mythos’ already helping select organisations identify and mitigate their cyber risk. Organisations, therefore, must have an AI strategy, understanding both vulnerabilities and opportunities, then move quickly to implement the tools and develop a workforce capable of applying them.

Focusing back on insurers, GenAI has already shown itself to be a step-change capability in structuring data, helping carriers make quicker and better-informed decisions about the novel risks they are presented with. Pravina Ladva, Group Chief Digital and Technology Officer at Swiss Re, shared how AI tooling has halved the number of systems in their data stack and shortened submission-to-quote times in some lines from 50 days to 24 hours. Palantir’s one-two punch of Foundry and Ontology emerged as a popular solution, and having heard similar success stories at InsurTech Insights in March, we would say GenAI has at last granted carriers the tools to leverage the power of their data. As pricing models move to real-time data to price uncertainty, the winners will be those with access to real-time information.

Tooling alone, however, is not a silver bullet, and successful delivery must be buttressed by effective change management and capable business users. Pravina stressed the importance of ‘bilingual talent’: those who couple business knowhow with technical literacy. This runs parallel to the thinking Oxbow Partners has done on the evolving underwriting skillset in our recent LMA reports. Executives, as ever, need to consider what their winning formula of technical and human capital looks like, and act quickly to secure it.

5. To respond effectively, leaders must change their frames of reference  

The summit closed with an emphatic address by General Sir Richard Shirreff, ex-Deputy Supreme Allied Commander of NATO. He proposed that we are only in the foothills of a global conflict between the US and China and challenged whether we, as individuals and businesses, have changed our frames of reference quickly enough. Do we know the threats we face? Are we prepared? Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine should never have caught the world off-guard in the way it did.

He argued that war rewards those who are bold, and to meet the present moment, it will be lateralism that prevails over conventional wisdom. Applying this to the above, we question whether organisations have enough ‘lateralists’ in their ranks, and if they do, whether those people will be empowered to explore fresh levers of resilience, access new channels of capital, or leverage technology to its truest potential. Equally, can governments provide commensurately innovative regulatory frameworks, fostering resilience without strangling progress?

We concur with Sir Richard’s closing remark that present risks must be baked into strategy. We encourage executives to focus on understanding where they are most exposed, where they can capitalise on opportunity and whether they have the tools and talent to succeed.