Takeaways from the Reinsurance Outlook USA conference 2026
21 May, 2026
Following the recent opening of the Oxbow Partners New York City office, our on the ground presence in the US continues to accelerate. Last week, we played a prominent role at the Reinsurance Outlook USA conference. Our Partner, Chris Sandilands, moderated the opening panel of the day discussing overall market trends and the 2026 Reinsurance CEO Agenda. Chris was joined by three senior industry panellists: Krysti Adamson, Managing Director and Head of Global Clients at Swiss Re, Jean-Paul Conoscente, CEO of P&C at SCOR, and Marcus Winter, President and CEO of P&C Reinsurance at Munich Re America.
Across the day several familiar themes surfaced (e.g. wildfire modelling, social inflation, evolving cyber risk). But more interestingly, conversations repeatedly returned to a set of strategic questions the industry has not yet fully answered and, in some cases, may be underestimating.
1. AI is moving faster than expected
Panellists outlined two questions that matter for executives:
- How quickly do we move from productivity gains to genuine disruption as a source of competitive advantage?
- Are we allocating resources in a way that reflects this acceleration or still treating AI as a side investment?
What stood out for us is a clear shift in conviction. The market has moved beyond debating whether AI matters and many carriers are willing to back AI with real investment. The only real question now is how quickly it reshapes the industry. The prevailing narrative is that AI is a short-term efficiency play, with longer-term disruption to follow. We believe that the gap between ‘incremental improvement’ and ‘structural change’ is likely to be shorter than many expect.
Overall, this conference was more bullish on the transformational impact of AI than the Insurance Insider event that we covered a month ago.
2. Geopolitics is becoming more complex and impact harder to predict
The level of uncertainty from geopolitics feels structurally higher than in the past. Events are unfolding faster and second-order impacts are harder to trace. The result is not just more risk, but less clarity on where that risk sits. Importantly, the exposure is not limited to underwriting portfolios: in many cases, the asset side is just as vulnerable.
Some carriers are starting to respond with more sophisticated approaches to geopolitical modelling, looking beyond obvious exposures and stress-testing across the full portfolio. Geopolitical analysis teams are now joining Nat Cat / climate teams on the frontier of risk research. The real challenge is: how can carriers respond and establish a persistent capability that ingests geopolitical data to inform underwriting, capital allocation and portfolio strategy?
Talking about how to think about the ‘fatter tail’ of geopolitical risk these days, Marcus Winter commented that there was little point in trying to be too nuanced. He gave an example of a small island in Germany’s North Sea. If you approximate its circumference, you get a sense of its size. If you measure its precise coastline, you would assume it is a huge landmass. His point: having a good sense of geopolitical exposure in the portfolio and achieving good diversification is more useful than false precision.
3. Risks are becoming more correlated and interdependent
The interconnected world is increasingly hard to model. Some risks only become visible after the fact (e.g. impact of the situation in the Middle East on global agriculture); others appear critical initially but fade quickly (e.g. CrowdStrike). The difficulty is not just forecasting events but understanding how they propagate through the system.
Traditional models struggle here, particularly when it comes to tail risks and correlation between them. As a result, there is a growing gap between modelled scenarios and real-world outcomes. Our view: this is not primarily a modelling problem. It is an opportunity to strengthen the overall decision-making framework. Reinsurers that outperform will not necessarily have ‘better’ models but will be better at using models appropriately. Treating them as inputs, not definitive answers, and combining them with informed commercial judgement that shapes the portfolio. Indeed, this will be a core capability in the AI world.
4. Capital deployment is a key lever to drive outperformance
Capital discipline is back at the centre of the agenda and rightly so. The range of tools available is well understood: buybacks, dividends, M&A, third-party capital and, of course, market deployment. What is changing, outlined neatly in a panel with RJ Shea, President, RenRe USA and Head of Underwriting Strategy (Casualty & Specialty), is the need to deploy these tools more actively and, in some cases, more opportunistically as market conditions shift.
Third-party capital continues to scale, and structures such as sidecars and ILS are now a well-established feature. However, access to this capital is not static. It can move with the cycle, sometimes quickly. Firms that assume consistent availability may be caught out. The implication is clear: capital strategy needs to be both deliberate and adaptable.
5. Diversification is evolving beyond traditional definitions
Diversification remains a core principle, but the definition is shifting. Historically, diversification was largely about underwriting mix: balancing risk across classes and geographies. That is no longer sufficient. Today, diversification increasingly sits across three dimensions: business model (insurance vs reinsurance), distribution (recognising the continued growth of MGAs and delegated authority) and capital structure (own balance sheet vs third-party capital).
This creates more opportunities, but also significantly more complexity. The firms that succeed will make explicit strategic choices about where and how to diversify across all these dimensions, and then build an operating model and delivery engine that can execute on these strategic choices. Successful implementation requires coordination and aligned incentives across all functions.
The industry is changing and the pace of change is accelerating. Firms that treat these themes as incremental will likely fall behind; those that act on them decisively have a clear opportunity to outperform. Oxbow Partners can help you navigate these shifts. If you would like to discuss any of these themes further, please get in touch.