Thoughts from FT Global Insurance Summit: The Golden Age of Insurance?
June 20, 2025
This week, Oxbow Partners attended the FT’s annual insurance summit in London. Given the challenging backdrop, the mood was upbeat, with several speakers seeing a golden age ahead for insurance, as it supports the world navigate increased uncertainty.
In this note we summarise some interesting questions that came up.
The macro environment is seen as concerning but manageable
Several CEOs referenced the longevity of their companies and reminded delegates not to get caught up in the day-to-day volatility. Brooks Tingle, CEO of John Hancock, conceded that things were panning out differently to what he could have expected, for example US and Canada being in a scrap, which could lead to systemic shifts such as a change in the status of the dollar. However, he also noted that it is “hard to bet against the US economy”.
Andy Briggs, CEO of Phoenix, shared that his impression was that most US investors took the view that Trump ultimately sees the performance of the US economy as a yardstick for his own performance. That said, he also noted that there was increased appetite from US investors in Europe as they seek to diversify their exposure.
Will political volatility in the US challenge Lloyd’s position in the US E&S market? Sheila Cameron, CEO of the LMA, noted that Lloyd’s two biggest states were California and Texas, deep blue and deep red; Lloyd’s can adapt and thrive in many climates.
Paul Bantick, CUO at Beazley, pointed to the carrier’s four platforms – Lloyd’s, US Admitted and E&S carriers, and a European company – as an important regulatory hedge in these times of increased protectionism. Whilst scale has not traditionally been a major success factor in specialty insurance, perhaps there is now a case for building multi-platform groups?
Large losses are an increased concern: reform is needed
Several speakers, including Nancy Bewlay, Group CUO of AXA, noted that $150bn is the “new normal” for nat cat losses. The protection gap also came up, with speakers noting that only around 20% of the recent $250bn economic loss from the California wildfires was insured.
Several speakers spoke of the need for better connectivity with governments to improve resilience. Christian Dunleavy, Group President at Aspen, noted that people in Bermuda “buy rum and go home before a hurricane” because the building code is established, enforced and effective. Ken Norgrove, CEO at RSA, noted the massive loss reduction that can be achieved by those who prepare for predictable events, but also commented on the challenge of making “build back better” initiatives economic for insurers.
Nancy described this as the need to “escape the cycle” of large losses, and Jim Williamson, President and CEO at Everest, spoke about the need to ensure “insurability and affordability” long-term. He noted that many insurance regulators were focused on capping the cost of insurance and risked “chasing capacity out of the market”, whereas what really mattered was the sustainability of the market. He noted the importance of mitigation measures such as reservoir maintenance and forestry management in the containment of future Californian wildfires.
With government schemes like the FAIR Plan found wanting when tested, we note a big role for insurers to play in developing public-private solutions for the next generation of climate-driven mega-events.
Jim also noted a breakdown of the US legal system that had “normalised” a $50m payout for a regular event. He noted that insurance is a “pass-through mechanism” and that juries needed to understand that it is “regular families” who pick up the costs of these verdicts. He noted that long-haul trucking would soon get to a point where coverage was unavailable – not just unaffordable – and that “reform is needed before there is a crisis.” By contrast, Florida has made real progress on market reform.
How should insurers think about the macro environment?
I asked a question to Pina Albo, CEO of Hamilton, and Christian Dunleavy, about how they think about tail scenarios when they construct portfolios and set risk appetite. My observation was that edge cases like a Chinese invasion of Taiwan had a much higher probability than even two years ago: how do you remain relevant in the market without opening yourself up to excessive exposure?
Christian pointed to Aspen’s macro council, a group of internal and external experts which meets regularly to discuss the global macro picture. We expect to see many more of these forums being established and lucrative second careers for former intelligence agents. Both Pina and Christian pointed to the importance of robust exposure and limit management. They noted that being exposed to these thinkable but manageable mega-events was part of the insurance proposition and that taking exposure was appropriate so long as it was priced adequately.
Their response echoed that of Jim Williamson, who noted that his company Everest looked to “maintain positions even when times are difficult”.
Some interesting perspectives on innovation
The role of government to support innovation was mentioned. The UK lost out to Bermuda on ILS innovation because the government did not provide the right legislative environment. Lloyd’s success in launching an alternative structure – London Bridge 2 – to meet similar objectives, was highlighted.
Brooks Tingle of John Hancock mentioned his company’s approach to life and health insurance. He noted that insurers all have a choice about whether to be an “active claims manager or a passive payer” and said that John Hancock made a conscious choice only to provide policies if it has features that encourage policyholders to live a healthier life. The hiring focus had shifted from data scientists to behavioural scientists in recent years (showing the diversify of talent needed in the insurance industry). He added that “nobody wants you to live longer than your life insurer!”.
Jim Williamson brought up an interesting case study from a parametric cover Everest underwrote in Morocco. He noted a recent earthquake which caused a total loss. Why was parametric a desirable policy trigger: because Morocco does not have the legal infrastructure to adjudicate thousands of claims, making parametric a much more efficient structure. Having taken the loss, Everest reloaded, “because that’s what we’re here for”. Eat that all of you who say that insurers don’t pay claims.
Where are we on M&A?
Igno van Waesberghe, Managing Partner at Aquiline, noted that there were six to twelve “actionable platforms” at Lloyd’s, but that they all have different characteristics. Equally, interest in acquiring a Lloyd’s presence has increased around the world. Investment bankers need to figure out which acquirer fits which platform. These views are consistent with our recent report on M&A in the Lloyd’s market.
At the same time, Igno noted that the brokerage roll-up play was seeing challenges. Whilst smaller platforms were still transacting well, the larger platforms were struggling to maintain their multiples.
AI update
Tim Mann, CIO at NFU Mutual, led the discussion here. He noted that it is often hard to make the AI business case work, requiring companies to look at it as a core strategic priority. He noted ‘Amara’s Law’, which states that people tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate its effect in the long run.
His views were shared by Pina Albo in the final panel of the day. Pina said that AI was going to accelerate and that you had to be working on it now to be on the wave when it comes. She noted that AI needed to follow the business strategy and that business people needed to be on the journey.
Broadly speaking, the discussion was consistent with our recent report on AI, where we found that a main reason companies were not advancing AI as quickly as they could be was a lack of management capacity.
Four ‘fun’ facts I learnt
- When Otto von Bismarck set the retirement age at 70 in 1889, life expectancy was around 40 years (Brooks Tingle)
- If someone detonates a nuclear weapon, all planes get grounded – good to know next time you’re on an intercontinental work trip (Sheila Cameron)
- The objective of cyber attacks has recently moved from extortion to disruption making them harder to manage (Paul Bantick)
- The California wildfires taught us that fires can now spread rapidly through cities, which we did not know before – very comforting for us city dwellers (Nancy Bewlay)